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bloc_h_g Et s’il s’appelait tout simplement Bayrou ? bloc_h_d
  image     
Source : http://www.agoravox.fr/article.php3?id_article=10103
Après la censure du gouvernement des socialistes appuyés par les centristes de l’UDF, le paysage politique français risque de subir un certain changement. Pourquoi ne verrait-t-on pas un François Bayrou venir bousculer les deux candidats Sarkozy et Royal?

Et s’il s’appelait tout simplement Bayrou?

«François Bayrou se pose en "troisième homme" dans la course à la présidence. Il pourrait faire figure de challenger de Jacques Chirac, non pas de droit, mais par défaut." La stratégie du futur candidat, explique Le Temps, s’appuie sur le fait que, "pour une fois, une faille s’ouvre dans le mur aveugle de l’opposition implacable gauche-droite, telle que l’ont voulue le général de Gaulle et la constitution de la Ve République.»

Cet extrait est tiré d’un article du Courrier International paru il y a quelques années dans l’hebdomadaire du 14 décembre 2000, deux ans avant le marasme du 21 avril 2002. Pourtant, à le lire, on a l’impression qu’il ne date que d’à peine trois semaines. En effet, depuis le vote de la censure du gouvernement du 16 mai, il semble se créer au milieu de la traditionnelle classe politique française une réelle troisième option (au contraire de l’extrême droite). Et Bayrou, qui n’est pas un novice en politique, a flairé le bon coup qu’il peut jouer. Il avait auparavant longtemps prévenu et menacé son allié, mais n’était jamais réellement passé à l’acte. Après le vote historique pour la censure de son traditionnel allié de droite, il a décidé de faire le tour de quelques régions afin d’expliquer la position de l’UDF mais surtout l’alternative qu’est la vision d’avenir d’un parti coincé entre deux mastodontes, l’UMP, parti majoritaire, et le PS, l’opposition socialiste. Comme il l’explique lui-même, le clivage droite-gauche en France n’a plus lieu d’être: «Puis-je rappeler que le mur de Berlin est tombé en 1989 [...] et qu’il est tombé à Berlin, où la droite et la gauche allemandes ont choisi, obéissant aux électeurs allemands, non seulement de parler ensemble, mais de gouverner ensemble».

Loin du jeu des sondages où Ségolène Royal de gauche et Nicolas Sarkozy de droite font office d’indéracinables, il paraît de plus en plus probable que comme en 2002, une surprise de taille attende les Français. Et même si 2007 semblent être la fin du monde, rien ne dit qu’un deuxième tour UDF - UMP ou UDF - PS ne tournerait pas à l’avantage de l’ancien ministre de l’éducation des gouvernements Balladur et Juppé. Bayrou n’est pas Le Pen, et si d’aventure il croisait, par exemple, un certain Chirac, il pourrait y avoir de l’action. D’autant plus qu’aujourd’hui les Français revendiquent de plus en plus le changement. Et même si le changement est incarné par Nicolas Sarkozy, les positions parfois dures et intransigeantes de ce dernier font très peur et jouent contre lui. C’est pourquoi ceux qui, à gauche, sont fatigués de l’éternel discours socialiste d’avant élection (de belles promesses irréalisables une fois au pouvoir, comme le dit DSK), pourraient jeter leur dévolu sur Bayrou. D’ailleurs, lors de ses sorties politiques, plusieurs anciens socialistes le lui font savoir: «Bravo, je suis un ancien électeur socialiste dégoûté, vous me redonnez le moral...», «Je suis un citoyen qui a pu voter à gauche. Mais vous offrez une voie nouvelle. Vous méritez votre chance. Soyez fier de vous.»

Il incarne un certain réalisme politique. Un quotidien de Lausanne écrivait en 2000 qu’il "se donne une image de modernité, incarnée par sa foi dans l’Europe, son goût du fédéralisme couplé à un libéralisme tempéré par un souci social, qui changent agréablement du modèle conservateur, populaire et bonapartiste du RPR." Voilà qui pourrait bien plaire à la «France d’en bas». Un centriste: un homme de droite qui a des valeurs sociales. Et d’ailleurs, comme nous le fait remarquer Nicolas Domenach de Marianne, lui-même le dit: «Je ne considère pas les socialistes français comme des ennemis, ni comme des intouchables...» Mais il sait aussi que ce ne sera pas chose facile de concilier les deux rives: «À gauche, l’interdiction de parler avec la droite et même de travailler avec le centre... À droite, interdiction formelle de travailler avec la gauche...» Et tout cela sans aucune considération pour les Français, car ce qu’ils en pensent, finalement, on s’en moque: il ne peut y avoir que deux solutions, à droite, ou à gauche. Et le propos d’Henri Emmanuelli l’illustre bien: «La démocratie est un moteur à deux pistons, une majorité et une opposition...»

Mais les jeux sont loin d’être faits pour Bayrou. Même si à droite la guerre de tranchée entre pro et anti Sarkozy fait rage, il ne fait aucun doute qu’une fois qu’une décision aura été prise (au prix de quoi?) au sujet du candidat de 2007, toute la droite unie dans un UMP digne de l’Empire britannique du XIXe siècle se fera une joie d’écraser tout ce qui pourra l’empêcher de prolonger son règne sans partage sur le Royaume France, et Bayrou avec. À gauche, malheureusement ou heureusement, le mystère est total. Trop brouillons, pour l’instant, dans leur démarche. Pas encore de projet (à part le "tout sauf Sarko"), une multitude de candidats de tous les bords, les ouiistes du référendum contre les nonistes, les gauchistes gauchisants, les libéraux de gauche, les poids lourds que sont DSK, Lang, Fabius, Hollande, et la vedette du jour, Ségolène Royal. Sans oublier bien sûr le retour (tant attendu par certains) de Lionel Jospin.

En attendant, François Bayrou peut être fier de son bilan, au cours de ces cinq dernières années passées à la barre de l’UDF. Il aura donné bien des sueurs froides à droite, aura toujours vu les intérêts des Français avant ceux de son clan, même si cela faisait partie de son jeu politique. Bref, il a souvent dit ce qu’il pensait, ce que les Français aujourd’hui attendent de la classe politique. Mais quelquefois, son leadership n’a pas été toujours aussi ferme que ses positions. Le cas de l’unique UDF dans le gouvernement, Gilles de Robien, en est l’exemple le plus patent.

Stéphane Waffo,

Un jour à la fois, le journal du Web.

Source:

Marianne, no 474 du 20 au 26 mai 2006, p12-15

www.courrierinternational.com

Le Monde

 
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