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bloc_h_g Dernieres news :  bloc_h_d
puce Bayrou s'explique à arrêt sur image
 14/12/2006-00:04

puce Hervé Morin dans la Matinale
 13/12/2006-23:45

puce C+: Bayrou à Serres Castet
 13/12/2006-23:41

puce Bayrou VS Apathie
 07/12/2006-17:09

puce ITW de Bayrou par Christophe Barbier 4 déc
 07/12/2006-17:03

puce François Bayrou sera le seul à demander le soutien des adhérents.
 07/12/2006-16:59

puce «J'approuve François Bayrou lorsqu'il critique TF1»
 07/12/2006-16:58

puce Bayrou apporte son soutien au Téléthon
 07/12/2006-16:55

puce Peyrelevade choisit Bayrou
 07/12/2006-16:54

puce Le ministre et le journaliste
 07/12/2006-16:53

puce Entrée en campagne réussie pour François Bayrou
 07/12/2006-16:50

puce Bayrou à iTélé le 4 déc
 05/12/2006-18:26

puce TF1 ne peut pas faire autrement que de m'inviter
 05/12/2006-18:24

puce L'opinion en a assez de se faire manipuler
 04/12/2006-19:04

puce bayrou dans Riposte
 04/12/2006-10:36

puce Bayrou chez Chazale 2 déc
 03/12/2006-10:16

puce Bayrou candidat à la présidentielle
 03/12/2006-10:08

puce Bayrou, le centriste qui dit non
 03/12/2006-10:06

puce De Sarnez à Dimanche +
 02/12/2006-14:20

puce A vous de juger ?
 02/12/2006-14:01

puce Bayrou répond à thedino.org
 02/12/2006-13:57

puce François Bayrou invente l'extrême centre
 30/11/2006-18:04

puce François Bayrou candidat dans ses terres
 30/11/2006-18:03

puce Bayrou se lancera le 2 décembre
 30/11/2006-18:01

puce Bayrou signe le pacte proposé par Nicolas Hulot
 30/11/2006-18:00


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bloc_h_g Le temps de Bayrou va arriver... bloc_h_d
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Source : http://www.agoravox.fr/article.php3?id_article=9355
L’UDF a connu une longue période pendant laquelle elle ne servait à rien. Les choses pourraient très bien changer lors des prochaines élections...

Aux dernières présidentielles, le centriste François Bayrou a obtenu un score de 7%. A la suite de cela, il a refusé de fondre l’UDF au sein de l’UMP, en prétextant qu’il préférait la diversité, et entendait donc proposer une autre voie que celle de Jacques Chirac aux Français. (Jacques Chirac qui, à l’époque, contrôlait encore son parti. Le monde a beaucoup changé, non?). A l’époque, François Bayrou s’est fait railler, et de nombreux membres de l’UMP l’ont accusé de rester en dehors du parti (encore) chiraquien pour profiter des financements publics, alors que des membres de l’UDF, comme Philipe Douste-Blazy, rejoignaient l’UMP (Douste-Blazy fut nommé numéro 3 de l’UMP, refusa de rentrer au gouvernement sans être Premier ministre, puis devint ministre de la Santé après un remaniement de l’équipe Raffarin avant de devenir ministre des Affaires étrangères sous Villepin). Après les législatives, qui donnèrent une majorité absolue à l’UMP, l’UDF refusa de rejoindre le gouvernement, mais le soutint à l’Assemblée. Seul Gilles de Robien trahit son camp et devint ministre des Transports, avant d’être nommé ministre de l’Education sous le gouvernement Villepin.

Durant les dernières années, l’UDF, sous l’impulsion de François Bayrou, a cultivé sa différence à l’égard de l’UMP, beaucoup en paroles, mais beaucoup moins en actes. Jusqu’à l’arrivée de Dominique de Villepin à Matignon, le pire acte de rébellion qu’ait accompli l’UDF à l’Assemblée nationale a été de s’abstenir lors du vote sur le budget.

 

Tout cela peut paraître risible. A dire vrai, tout cela l’était jusqu’à ces derniers mois. François Bayrou apparaissait comme un rabat-joie qui venait dire qu’il n’était pas d’accord avec Chirac avant de voter les lois proposées par le gouvernement. Le plus drôle a été au moment où l’Assemblée a voté le prolongement de la loi sur l’état d’urgence: l’UDF était contre, mais a voté pour, car la majorité des Français était pour.

 

Et puis le CPE est arrivé. Imposé par un Dominique de Villepin manifestement plus inspiré par les méthodes de Murat que par celles de Napoléon, ce contrat a eu pour effet de diviser la majorité, de souder l’opposition, et de permettre à l’UDF de montrer sa différence, et pas seulement en paroles, pour une fois. De plus, François Bayrou s’est mis à cultiver une véritable différence face à l’approche de plus en plus sarkozyste de l’UMP: refus de l’immigration choisie et de la dérive patriotique du ministre de l’Intérieur à ce sujet, rejet de la doctrine libérale, refus d’un régime présidentiel à l’américaine au profit d’un régime parlementaire.

Bayrou se trouve en bonne position pour récupérer les voix des gens de droite qui ne se reconnaissent pas dans le discours de Nicolas Sarkozy. Il aura peut-être également la possibilité, au cas où le PS se choisirait une ligne très à gauche dans la campagne, de capter les voix d’un électorat de gauche modéré et pragmatique.

 

Mais là n’est pas sa principale force. Car, soyons clairs, François Bayrou ne sera sans doute jamais président de la République, ou en tout cas, il ne le sera pas en 2007. En revanche, il pourrait très bien se retrouver dans une position de faiseur de roi. Il pourrait très bien être celui qui décidera qui, de Nicolas Sarkozy ou du (de la) candidat(e) socialiste, sera président(e). En appelant à voter pour l’un ou pour l’autre, il peut très bien déterminer l’issue du scrutin.

Et ce n’est pas tout. Car quel que soit le prochain président, il est très peu probable qu’il bénéficie d’une majorité comparable à celle dont bénéficie actuellement Jacques Chirac. La prochaine Assemblée nationale sera sans doute morcelée, l’UMP aura perdu beaucoup de sièges, le PS en aura récupéré quelques-uns, et les petits partis seront beaucoup plus représentés qu’ils ne le sont maintenant. Même si le mode de scrutin empêche, sans doute, qu’ils aient un trop grand pouvoir, il est très probable que ni le PS ni l’UMP ne pourront gouverner seuls.

Si c’est le PS qui gagne, il se tournera vers ses alliés habituels, les verts et les communistes. Mais ceux-ci le suivront-ils? S’il mène une politique pragmatique, sans doute pas. Les socialistes n’auront alors pas le choix, et devront gouverner avec l’UDF. Si c’est l’UMP qui gagne, une alliance avec les centristes s’imposera. Et si, scénario très improbable mais qu’il faut quand même envisager, on se retrouve avec une alliance PS-UMP comme en Allemagne, alors l’UDF fera forcément partie du gouvernement.

Dans tous les cas de figure, l’UDF aura un pouvoir considérable entre les mains. Sous la présidence de Nicolas Sarkozy, Bayrou pourra très bien empêcher de mener à bien les projets de réformes libérales et de changement de régime. Sous la présidence d’un(e) socialiste, les centristes pourront sans doute imposer un changement de scrutin pour que les élections se fassent à la proportionnelle intégrale. En cas de grande coalition à l’allemande, l’UDF se retrouvera en position d’arbitre entre l’UMP et le PS, et pourra imposer ses vues sur de vastes secteurs.

 

Quoi qu’il en soit, une chose est très probable: Bayrou va se retrouver en position de force.  
bloc_b_g Ajouté le Mercredi 6 septembre 2006 à 01:13 par frederic.m - (suite... | 23 commentaires) bloc_b_d

>> Vos commentaires [23]

bloc_h_g Bayrou ne sera sans doute jamais président de la République ????????? :: [Commentaire n°1] bloc_h_d
Posté par olafm le 23/11/2006

" Car, soyons clairs, François Bayrou ne sera sans doute jamais président de la République, ou en tout cas, il ne le sera pas en 2007. "
>>>>>>>>>>>>> mais comment tu le sais ????? On verra le soir du 22 avril qui sera le 3e homme .... certainement pas François Bayrou, il sera au moins à la 2e place ! ;-)

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