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Bayrou peut-il enfin gagner ... |
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François Bayrou peut-il enfin gagner le défi de la préférence ?
source : http://www.exprimeo.fr/actualites/actualites.php?idActualites=465
02/10/2006 Analyse - Invité du "Grand Rendez-vous" Europe 1 / Le Parisien / TV5, le Président de l'UDF s'est posé en troisième voie pour mettre fin au monopole PS-UMP. Pourquoi son discours au contenu d'une indiscutable qualité est-il aussi peu audible ?
Il y a un "mystère Bayrou". Il est l'un des leaders politiques qui consacre la plus grande attention à sa "destinée présidentielle". Ses discours sont toujours d'une grande qualité et préparés par ses soins. Pour autant, la courbe des sondages reste plate.
Pourquoi ?
Tout d'abord, F. Bayrou a un socle d'opinions favorables qui est non négligeable puisque de l'ordre de 43 %.
Ses réservoirs privilégiés sont :
* les 70 ans et +,
* les agriculteurs,
* la région du Sud Ouest,
* les revenus "moyens" de 1 200 à 2 000 euros de revenu net mensuel du foyer,
* il a une meilleure cote au sein des sympathisants PS que des sympathisants UMP.
Ces quelques chiffres montrent tous les paradoxes de l'image de F. Bayrou.
C'est une image décalée et surtout une image d'appoint. Il joue dans des catégories où il ne gagne pas la préférence.
Parce qu'il ne gagne pas la préférence, si les Français souhaitent sa candidature à la présidentielle, ils le quittent ensuite pour voter pour un autre.
C'est une séparation, là aussi, d'autant plus étonnante que sur le fond bon nombre des thèmes de F. Bayrou correspondent à des priorités nationales reconnues à l'exemple de l'union nationale.
Si F. Bayrou ne gagne pas la préférence alors même que son contenu est en adéquation avec les priorités des Français c'est que son image personnelle est en trop grand décalage avec le fond de son message.
La première image qui saute à l'oeil, celle du contenant, casse le message, le contenu.
Il déclare la guerre à un système politique mais il a l'image du "gentil".
Il se veut présidentiel mais il donne l'image de ne pas être dans la même division que les "vrais présidentiables".
Il se veut et mérite d'être parmi les tous premiers mais il semble s'accoutumer à rester dans le peloton des éternels seconds.
Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy ont travaillé d'abord l'image de leur tempérament pour changer de "catégorie" ; F. Bayrou reste à l'écart de telles évolutions.
Imaginez le Président de l'UDF négocier pendant l'été 2006 l'exclusivité avec un magazine "grand public" pour le suivre dans un stage commando au fin fond du Colorado, en revenir avec 15 kilos en moins et une coupe de cheveux ayant mis fin aux "bouclettes"...
Là l'UDF avait gagné un leader prêt pour le combat.
Comme le PS a gagné une candidate entièrement relookée. Comme tant de candidat ont organisé leur métamorphose d'abord par l'image.
Le plus bel exemple fut aux Etats Unis la campagne de G Bush senior, toujours second et notamment second "sage et discipliné" de R. Reagan en qualité de Vice-président pendant 2 mandats. Les démocrates lui envoyaient des militants déguisés en "poulettes" pour dégager l'image de "poule mouillée".
Il a sorti le blouson du pilote de guerre qu'il fut et a fait sa campagne en blouson de cuir. Lors de chaque conférence, il posait son blouson et retroussait ses manches de chemise comme si la bataille l'attendait.
En quelques semaines, son image de "second" allait le quitter.
F. Bayrou doit trouver son "blouson de campagne" sinon il ne décollera pas car il perdra toujours le "défi de la préférence" faute d'une personnalité assez marquée et référente.
Dans une présidentielle, il n'est pas question de la désignation d'un premier prix. La victoire est le prix d'être le premier, différent des autres. C'est cette équation que F. Bayrou doit résoudre bien avant la qualité du contenu de ses interventions. |
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Ajouté le Lundi 2 octobre 2006 à 16:43 par Admin - (suite... | 17 commentaires) |
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>> Vos commentaires [17]
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Les communicants croiraient-ils à leur propre discours? :: [Commentaire n°1] |
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1) L'analyse des préférences statistiques ne signifie rien. En effet, tout ce que cela montre , c'est qu'aujourd'hui, Bayrou a pour l'instant une image moins bonne que celle des deux gros dont on nous parle sans arrêt. C'est une banalité qui ne permet en rien de dire comment son image est en train d'évoluer: il ne faut pas raisonner en statique mais en dynamique; qui le connaît pour l'instant? qui peut analyser aujourd'hui ce que seront les préférences des Français quand ils l'auront entendu? L'image du gentil, il l'a perdu auprès de tous ceux qui l'ont entendu, qui se sont informés. Tous les défauts manipulatoires des sondages ressortent ici.
2) L'idée selon laquelle c'est l'image, le marketing, etc qui commande le reste est une absurdité; je crois que l'image de Sarkozy et Royal ne cachera qu'un moment ce qu'ils sont ou d'ailleurs ne sont pas. Et il est complètement faux de dire que c'est leur image qui fait qu'ils ont des préférences marquées; c'est qu'on ne parle délibérément que d'eux deux dans les média, comme du PS et de l'UMP, ce qui n'est pas du tout la même chose.
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